Fed Silencing Period!

As the week's significant event risks begin, investors' focus on Tuesday (October 29th) is undoubtedly on earnings reports, with the market largely in a wait-and-see mode.

Five of the tech giants, known as the "Seven Titans," will release their earnings reports in the next three days, and these companies have driven Wall Street stocks to new highs this year. Later on Tuesday, Alphabet, Google's parent company, will be the first to release its earnings report. Meta and Microsoft will follow on Wednesday, and Amazon and Apple will release their reports on Thursday.

Tesla set the tone for the earnings season last week, with its bold sales forecast driving a 22% surge in its stock price, marking the largest increase in a decade. However, analysts remain cautious about Elon Musk's overcommitment.

Nvidia, a representative AI company, has been competing with Apple for the title of most valuable company, but its earnings report won't be released until late November. In terms of AI themes, the earnings reports of chip manufacturers in the coming days will show the sustained strength of the AI boom. AMD will release its earnings report on Tuesday, while Intel will do so on Thursday.

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In Europe, the banking sector is in focus, with HSBC announcing an additional $3 billion stock buyback plan and reporting a better-than-expected 10% profit increase. Last week, the bank was in the news due to massive restructuring and streamlining of its executive committee. Santander Bank will also release its earnings report on Tuesday, but its UK division has postponed the release to assess the impact of a court ruling on auto finance commissions. UBS will release its earnings report on Wednesday.

Although the banking industry is in its healthiest state since the global financial crisis, investors want to ensure the credibility of long-term earnings, especially as the European Central Bank is the first among the world's major central banks to cut interest rates.

In contrast, due to strong economic data, especially employment data, the Federal Reserve can afford to be leisurely in easing policy. The job market has become the Federal Reserve's focus, so the dollar and Treasury bond yields took a slight breather near the three-month high before today's JOLTS job vacancy data (the central bank's preferred measure of the job market) was announced.

The crucial monthly non-farm employment data will be released on Friday, which will lay the foundation for the policy decision on November 7th. Federal Reserve officials, who are in a quiet period, will not give any hints.

Opinion polls show a tight race between the two sides, but market and some betting platform movements indicate that the chances of the Republican Party winning are increasing.